UK growth monitor GTM –UK | 6 y Retail sales vs. consumer confidence Manufacturing and services investment intentions Standard deviations from average (LHS); % change year on year (RHS) Index level 3 10 4 Retail 3 2 sales 5 2 UK econom1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 Services Consumer confidence -4 Manufacturing -3 -10 -5 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 CBI Business optimism Industrial production Index Recession Index level, 1990=100 60 115 40 20 105 0 95 -20 -40 85 -60 -80 75 '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16 '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16 Source: (Top left) GFK, ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Retail sales data is a six month moving average and consumer confidence data is a 6 month moving average z score (indicates how many standard deviations the data point is away from its mean). (Bottom left) CBI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Bank of England, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Light grey columns in all charts indicate recession. Guide to the Markets - UK. Data as of 31 December 2016. 6