US Federal Reserve outlook GTM –UK | 25 Federal funds rate expectations % Fed funds rate, FOMC and market expectations FOMC December 2016 forecasts* 7 Federal funds rate 2017 2018 2019 Long US Fed FOMC forecasts median run y US Fed FOMC forecasts range Change in real GDP, Q4 to Q4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 6 Market expectations on 31 Dec 2016 Unemployment rate, Q4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 FOMC long-run projection PCE inflation, Q4 to Q4 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 5 Global econom4 3.0% 3 2 1 0 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Forecasts of 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, midpoints of central tendency except for Federal funds rate, which is a median estimate. Guide to the Markets - UK. Data as of 31 December 2016. 25